The recent military aggression of Russia in Eastern Europe and the Middle East has sparked a lot of discussions and debates about the motives and strategies of its leader, Vladimir Putin. Many analysts and experts have been trying to decipher the intentions behind Putin’s actions and predict his next moves. In this context, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has shed light on Putin’s strategy of prolonging wars to achieve victory, and the potential risks and limitations of this approach.
According to the ISW’s recent analysis, Putin’s strategy of protracted warfare is based on the assumption that a prolonged conflict will eventually wear out the opponent, leading to its surrender or defeat. This tactic has been evident in Russia’s involvement in the wars in Ukraine and Syria, where it has been supporting separatist groups and the Syrian regime, respectively. However, the ISW argues that this strategy may not lead to the desired outcome for Putin and could even backfire in the long run.
One of the key reasons why this strategy may not work for Putin is the financial burden it puts on Russia. The ISW points out that the prolonged conflicts in Ukraine and Syria have drained the Russian economy, which was already struggling due to sanctions and low oil prices. As a result, Putin’s government may not have the resources to sustain these wars for an extended period, leading to a collapse of the economy and a potential backlash from the Russian people.
Moreover, the longer these conflicts continue, the more likely it is for the international community to intervene. The ISW highlights that Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Syria have been met with international condemnation and sanctions, which have limited its ability to maneuver and escalate the conflicts. As time goes by, the pressure from the international community is likely to increase, making it harder for Putin to achieve his objectives.
The ISW also emphasizes the limitations of Putin’s strategy in terms of military capabilities and diplomatic support. In both Ukraine and Syria, Russia has relied heavily on proxy forces, such as separatist groups and the Syrian regime, to do the fighting on the ground. However, these forces may not be as effective as the Russian military, and they may not share the same objectives as Putin. Furthermore, Russia’s allies and partners in these conflicts, such as Iran and Turkey, have their own interests and may not always align with Russia’s goals.
In addition to these factors, the ISW also highlights the potential risks of Putin’s strategy for the long-term stability and security of Russia. The prolongation of conflicts in its neighboring countries could lead to the spread of violence and instability, which could eventually spill over into Russian territory. This could also result in the emergence of new threats and challenges for the Russian government, which it may not be able to handle.
In conclusion, the ISW’s analysis provides valuable insights into the potential risks and limitations of Putin’s strategy of prolonging wars for victory. While this approach may seem appealing to Putin in the short term, it could have severe consequences for Russia in the long run. The financial, diplomatic, and military limitations of this strategy could ultimately undermine Putin’s goals and jeopardize the stability and security of Russia. Therefore, it is crucial for the Russian government to carefully consider these factors and reassess its approach to conflicts in the region.
